Over the weekend, Gureal, Dhusamarebe and Mataban in central Somalia fell to the Al-Shabab Islamists. But, hold on, that is not news, for town after town in Southern Somalia has been taken over by the same group in the last few months. What is the news?  

The news: Lo and behold, fresh Ethiopian forces had crossed the border into central Somalia to face the Al-Shabab there? Why there and not other parts in the South? 

The Al-Shabab’s next stop, if not stopped, would be Beletweine then Jawhar. The forces in both of these towns are loyal to Sheikh Sharif’s Islamic Courts Union (ICU).  

Ordinarily, I would not put much stock in conspiracy theories, but there is something peculiar about Ethiopia’s sudden move against the Al-Shabab extremists there! It sounds and looks like the Ethiopians are to protect and rescue Sheikh Sharif’s militia assets, who are no match for the terror group, from sudden misfortune. 

If that is the case, then Sheikh Sharif and his group are potentially just as victims of Al-Shabab as the TFG. To the Al-Shabab, they both are as one and the same as a “donkey and its two ears” (Dameer iyo labadiis dhagood), as Somalis proverb. 

Oh, my! What does that say about the good Sharif’s threat few days ago: “The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is only in existence because of the peace deal,” referring to the Djibouti agreement, with an implicit inference—if the TFG rejects the deal—that TFG ceases to exist? 

If the Islamists in Somalia have fragmented, and if the power is with the most extreme of them, the dreaded Al-Shabab with what power is Sheikh Sharif issuing as grandiose a threat as he did? 

Perhaps, he had cut a deal with the Ethiopians, that they are his backbone now. I do not know, but there is something amiss in what is going here. How else anyone would explain the Ethiopians’ inability, or perhaps unwillingness, to face the Al-Shabab who has been inching to Baidhabo, the seat of the TFG—given the fact that Al-shabab, wherever they are in Somalia, are a threat to the Ethiopians, as the Ethiopians state. 

What about the Djibouti peace deal itself? On the ground in Somalia today, there is the TFG, then there are different groups as its opposition. Of course, there is the 800 lbs gorilla, the Ethiopian occupation. “To kill two birds with one stone,” i.e. to achieve peace and get rid of the occupation, all Somali opposing groups must sit around the table of peace-making and reach a genuine peace! Any attempt short of that is worthless!  

Therefore, why was it allowed the Djibouti peace negotiations to be between a small slice within a slice of the opposition and a faction of the TFG? Asmara group of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) was not there; the Al-Sunna Waljama’ah was not there; the evil “lion-terrorist” of Al-Shabab was not there! Nor was the TFG in unison there. Neither was I there (a joke), by the way. Yet, they called it a peace for Somalia. A paradoxical Navel Chamberlain (Nuur Ade), “peace in our time,” that was—as farcical and deadly no less for Somalia! Get real….   

As you can read, I am still confused about that peace! Ma anigaa waalan mise Cadan baa laga heesayaa; translation: Have I gone bananas (crazy) or do I hear singing in Aden (though I am in Mogadishu)? NUTS! 

Hussein Ablele 

Husseinab77@hotmail.com